Dam for a dam’: India and China move closer to a potential water conflict in the Himalayas

Last month, on a chilly afternoon, Gegong Jijong stood among hundreds of other protesters near the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh, India, voicing their opposition to a government dam project. “No dam over Ane Siang [Mother Siang],” they chanted. The Siang River holds sacred significance for Jijong’s Adi tribal community, whose farming livelihood has long relied on its waters. However, the construction of the massive $13.2 billion Siang Upper Multipurpose Project threatens to disrupt everything they know.

This mega-project, which promises to be India’s largest hydroelectric facility, aims to create a reservoir holding nine billion cubic meters of water and generate 11,000 megawatts of electricity—more than any other hydroelectric plant in the country. The project, initially proposed in 2017, is currently in the feasibility phase, but local villagers warn that it will flood at least 20 villages and partially submerge many others, displacing thousands of residents. Despite growing opposition, the state government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has deployed paramilitary forces to control the protests.

Jijong, president of the Siang Indigenous Farmers’ Forum, remains adamant in his resistance, declaring, “As long as I am alive, we will not let the government build this dam.” The BJP, on the other hand, contends that the project is not just about power generation, but about protecting the Siang River. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has even claimed that the dam’s true purpose is to preserve the river.

The stakes are higher than they may appear, as the project also fits into a broader geopolitical struggle between India and China. The Siang River originates in Tibet, where it is known as the Yarlung Zangbo, and flows through Arunachal Pradesh before entering Bangladesh. Recently, China announced the construction of its own ambitious dam on the Yarlung Zangbo near the Indian border. In response, India has moved forward with the Siang project, hoping to mitigate the potential impacts of China’s dam, including the disruption of river flows and risks of flash floods or water scarcity.

Both dams, however, are set to create environmental and social challenges. Experts warn that building such massive structures in a seismically sensitive and ecologically fragile region could have devastating consequences for millions of people living downstream. Moreover, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding water in this region are fraught, with the rivalry between India and China adding fuel to fears that water could be used as a strategic weapon.

China’s Medog dam, set to be the largest hydroelectric project in the world, will dwarf India’s Siang dam in scale and power generation. India’s fears are not unfounded—China has previously suspended the sharing of hydrological data with India, most notably in 2017 during a military standoff, which exacerbated flooding in India’s northeastern state of Assam.

At the core of this issue is a tense contest over water resources in a region that has already seen conflicts triggered by water disputes. The broader implications of these mega-dams for global water security and climate change are significant, especially given the vulnerability of the region to natural disasters like earthquakes and floods. Experts are concerned that the arms race of dam-building could disrupt the delicate balance of water flows in this already volatile region, disproportionately affecting local, indigenous populations caught in the crossfire.

This conflict is not just about water or energy; it’s about geopolitics, climate change, and the survival of communities whose ways of life are intricately tied to the land and rivers they call home. The unfolding drama in Arunachal Pradesh underscores the growing tension between development, environmental sustainability, and national security.