Deadly Siege Concludes with Myanmar Military Taking Control of Western Border

The fall of the BGP5 barracks was marked by a deafening and brutal assault. Initially, a crackling speaker demanded the surrender of the defenders, followed by a violent barrage of artillery, rockets, and rifle fire that shredded the structures where hundreds of soldiers had taken refuge. BGP5, short for Border Guard Police, had been the last stronghold of the Myanmar military junta in northern Rakhine State, a region along Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh.

Video footage from the Arakan Army (AA), the insurgent group besieging the base, depicts their ragtag fighters—many barefoot—firing a variety of weapons at the base while air force jets flew overhead. The battle was one of the most intense and bloody clashes of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which erupted following the military coup of 2021. According to AA sources, the soldiers had created formidable defenses around the base, including deep ditches lined with spikes, bunkers, reinforced buildings, and over a thousand landmines. Many AA fighters were killed or severely wounded trying to breach these defenses.

For Myanmar’s coup leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, this loss represents another humiliating defeat after a series of setbacks over the past year. The junta has, for the first time, lost control of an entire border region. The 270-kilometer border between Myanmar and Bangladesh is now fully controlled by the AA. With only the Rakhine State capital, Sittwe, remaining under military control but isolated from the rest of the country, the AA is on the verge of becoming the first insurgent group in Myanmar to gain full control of a state.

Since the beginning of 2024, the Myanmar military has been in a full retreat from the AA, losing town after town. In September, the remaining army units withdrew to BGP5, a compound located just outside Maungdaw. The base was built on the site of a Rohingya village that was destroyed during the military’s violent expulsion of the Rohingya population in 2017.

The AA’s approach to the base was painstakingly slow, with the insurgents having to dig trenches for cover while facing constant bombardments. The Myanmar air force provided supply drops and aerial support, but these efforts proved insufficient. As food and medical supplies dwindled, morale within the military forces plummeted. Last weekend, soldiers began surrendering, many in poor condition, some on makeshift crutches, and others wrapped in rags. AA videos captured the horrifying aftermath, with piles of bodies seen inside the wrecked base. The AA claimed that more than 450 soldiers died during the siege, and footage also showed the captured commander, Brigadier-General Thurein Tun, and his officers kneeling beneath the AA flag.

This victory is a testament to the AA’s growing strength and effectiveness. Formed in 2009, the AA has become one of the most capable insurgent forces in Myanmar, largely due to its disciplined leadership, motivated fighters, and solid financial and weapons support from older insurgent groups based along Myanmar’s Chinese border. The AA has been effectively administering the areas of Rakhine it controls, showcasing a level of governance that challenges the authority of Myanmar’s military.

However, the AA’s victory raises questions about the future of Rakhine State and the broader situation in Myanmar. The region has suffered extensive damage during the ongoing conflict, with estimates suggesting that 80% of the housing in Maungdaw and nearby villages has been destroyed. As a result, a large number of people have been displaced, and aid has been difficult to get past the military blockade. While the AA has been attempting to establish its own administration, reports from displaced people indicate that the insurgents have struggled to provide adequate food or shelter for the displaced population.

Another major issue is the situation of the Rohingya people, who have faced extreme persecution at the hands of the Myanmar military. Many Rohingyas were forced to flee their homes during the 2017 crackdown, and while some have expressed a willingness to live under AA control, tensions between the Rohingya population and the ethnic Rakhine majority, the AA’s main support base, are high. The AA has expelled many Rohingyas from towns it has captured, and although it claims to advocate for inclusivity, its actions against Rohingya civilians have been concerning, including drone strikes that targeted Rohingya refugees trying to cross into Bangladesh.

The AA’s rise to power has important implications for Myanmar’s insurgencies and their long-term goals. While the insurgent groups claim to support the removal of the military junta, there are indications that some groups, particularly those aligned with China, may be willing to accept a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Such a deal could leave the military with substantial political power, undermining the opposition’s call for comprehensive reforms. The AA’s next steps in Rakhine and beyond will likely shape the future trajectory of Myanmar’s conflict and the fate of its ethnic insurgencies.